We talked yesterday about Odds of the #2 seed...here are the scenarios and the odds.
- Hawks win out- .6 x .55 x .7= 23%
- Giants lose 1- .45 @Atl, .45 @ Bal. .9 vs. Phil.= 82% chance of losing 1
- Pack lose 1- .55 @Chi x .9 vs.
- SF loses 1 other- .4 @NE, .95 vs. Ari= 62% chance of losing a game
36% chance of all those teams losing at least 1 game
8% chance of Hawks winning out and all of those teams losing 1 game.
Now what are the chances the Hawks MISS THE PLAYOFFS, heres how you figure it out…you take the SCENARIOS of how Hawks can miss the playoffs
We know they are in if they win out and we can assume they are in if they win the two home games and finish 10-6 (8-4)
What are the chances of the other scenarios?
- 5% chance of losing out
- 15% chance of losing
- 14% chance of beating
- 46% chance of losing a home game and winning other two finishing 10-6 (7-5)
Now what are the chances of missing the playoffs in each scenario
- Lose out- 100% chance of missing playoffs
- 9-7 (7-5)- 60% chance of missing playoffs
- 9-7 (6-6)- 80% chance of missing the playoffs
- 10-6 (7-5)- 22% chance of missing playoffs
(We are assuming playoffs at 100% if you go 11-5 or 10-6 and win both NFC games)
Now you multiply the chance of each scenario by the chance of missing out under each scenario then you add up all the totals and you get your total chance of missing the playoffs.
1. 8-8 5% chance it happens x 100% chance you miss the playoffs if it did happen= 5% overall chance of occurring
2. 9-7 (6-6) 14% chance it happens x 80% chance you miss the playoffs if it does happen= 11% overall chance of occurring
3. 9-7 (7-5) 15% chance of happening x 60% chance of missing playoffs if it did happen= 9% overall chance of occurring
4. 10-6 (7-5) 46% chance of happening x 22% chance of missing the playoffs if it did happen. = 10% overall chance of happening
ADD up 5%+11%+9%+10%= 35% chance of the Hawks not making the playoffs
