By now, we are all almost "numbered out" in terms of stats, trends and comparisons between the 49ers and Seahawks. But while preparing for our Seahawks Saturday Night show on Q13 Fox this weekend, I did stumble into some things regarding the running backs, Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch.
While a 100 yard game is a magic number of sorts for running backs, I sometimes tend to look more at yards per carry. I looked back at the past three seasons (teams really became who they are these past three years) and compared Lynch and Gore in the games between the two teams to see what we could find.
Four yards a carry is more or less the line to get to in terms of a quality carry. Using that as a standard, in the six games between the two teams, both Gore and Lynch had three games each when they had 4.0 or more per carry, and three each with less than four per carry. So what does it mean? Not much as far as Lynch is concerned since the Seahawks did lose two games when he was over four yards a carry.
But as far as Gore is concerned, if the Seahawks hold him in check, the 49ers, at least lately, don't win. In the Seahawks past two wins, both at home, Gore has had games of six carries for 28 yards in 2012 and nine carries for 16 yards in the second game of the season this year. So hold Gore down, you have a chance to win. Easy, and obvious.
But here is the real magic number to keep an eye on this weekend. Marshawn Lynch has played in five career playoff games. The Seahawks are 3-2 in those games. Three times Lynch has gone for more than 100 yards in the postseason. All three times the Seahawks have won.
It is simplistic, yes. But odds are if Lynch can go over 100 yards on Sunday, the Seahawks will win. And his last five games against the 49ers he has had games of 72 (loss), 98 (win), 111 (loss), 103 (win) and 107 (win). Odds are he gets to 100, or close to it, and the Seahawks would more than likely be NFC Champions.